Iraq War (2003 - 2009)
Turmoil Under U.S.-Led Occupation.

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 Tensions and Violence Persist in Mosul in 2009:

Al Qaeda in Iraq Regroups in Nineveh Province: After being driven out of the Al Anbar Province in Western Iraq in 2007, then the regions directly surrounding Baghdad in 2008, Al Qaeda was forced into the northern province of Nineveh. The US and Iraqi Security forces attempted to root them out of Nineveh as well, but Al Qaeda held strong, and maintained a stronghold in the region, especially in Mosul. As a result, violence has raged on in the city.

(Timeline Continued Below)

Arab-Kurd Tensions: The autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government officially gained recognition in 2005, but have methodically expanded their area of control to the eastern fringes of Mosul and Kirkuk. The Kurds have long attempted to establish control over the two oil-rich cities, which continue to be ethnically diverse, with significant Kurdish communities. Shi'ite Prime Minister Maliki has countered growing Kurd ambitions by replacing Kurds in prominent security and government positions, resulting in growing tension and violence between Arabs and Kurds in the area, Mosul in particular.

Persecution of Assyrian Christians: Since the beginning of the Iraqi War, as lawlessness took hold throughout Iraq, the Assyrians have suffered substantial persecutions at the hands of their Muslim neighbors. This has been the case in Mosel in particular, since it has long been the heart of the traditional Assyrian homeland, going back to the times of the Assyrian Empire. Assyrians became Christianized during their years under Roman rule, and unlike nearly all nations around them, resisted Islamization during the rise of the Islamic Caliphate beginning in the 7th century. Whenever a Christian-Muslim controversy has arisen since 2003, Assyrians have been murdered in retaliation, and their churches and homes wrecked. Controversies include the Danish Muhammad satirical cartoons & Pope Benedict's anti-Muhammad comments. Assyrians continue to be driven out of Mosul by the thousands.

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 Shi'a Militias Pacified:

Al-Sadr Calls for Peace: The Shi'a Mahdi Army, supporters of cleric Al-Sadr, were the most notable troublemakers for the Maliki-headed Iraqi government entering 2009. The Iraqi government and security forces were dominated by rival Shi'ite political parties, inciting a sharp spike in Mahdi Army revolts. In 2009, Al-Sadr persuaded most to lay down their weapons, and to participate in political process instead.

 Coalition Hands Over Power:

U.S. Withdraws from HQ in Iraq (Jan 1): The U.S. handed over the Green Zone to the Iraqis. The Green Zone served as the U.S. headquarters in Iraq. The U.S. also opened an embassy in Baghdad.

Obama Exit Strategy Announced (Feb 27): The U.S. will reduce its troop level to 50,000 by Aug. 31, 2010. The remaining troops are to be withdrawn by the end of 2011.

The United Kingdom is completely withdrawn from Iraq (May 27).

U.S. Troops Withdraw from Cities (Jun 30): Security for Iraq was officially handed over to the Iraqis. The U.S. withdrew from all cities and towns, where the vast majority of violence takes place.

U.S. Only Remaining Foreign Force (Jul 28): Australia officially withdraws, leaving the US as the only foreign nation with troops remaining in Iraq.

 Signs of Progress:

Jan 13: Former members of Ba’ath Party are allowed to fill positions in the Iraqi military and government.
Sept 1: The Al Anbar Province, recent stronghold of Al Qaeda in Iraq, was handed over to the Iraqi government. This increased the number of provinces under direct Iraqi rule to 13 out of 18.

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 Potential for Continued Conflict: 2009 and Beyond:

Kurds and Turkey Along Iraqi-Turkey Border: Kurdish rebels have a long history of violent insurgency activities in Turkey, with Kurdish rebel groups ratcheting up their efforts in the past few years. In 2007, Turkish soldiers began to carry out operations against the Kurdistan PKK guerilla group, which has been using Northern Iraq as a staging ground for attacks. While the mainstream Kurdish Regional Government condemns the PKK, Turkey will never rest easy with an empowered Kurdish nation entrenched along its strategic SE border. In which case, it is likely that Turkey will continue to search for ways to undermine Kurdish autonomy, including further militar force.

Ethnically-Divided Mosul and Kirkuk: Kurds have aggressively expanded influence in these two oil-rich cities since the U.S. invasion, essentially attempting to annex each into its autonomous government. The Arab majority of Iraq is now taking action of its own, removing Kurds from important positions. The dispute has even escalated into armed conflict between Arabs and Kurds. The power struggle is especially critical for the Arab Sunni constituency, which does not boast outright control over any other oil-rich part of Iraq, unlike the Arab Shi'a, who control the vast oil fields in the south.

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Sunni-Shi'a Civil War: This possibility will long loom over Iraq, as the Sunnis will not likely accept its new, diminished status peacefully after centuries of dominance in Iraq.

Iran: Iran has exercised little influence in the post-invasion insurgency up to this point, while the Shi'a government of Iraq has not exhibited a tendency to submit itself to Iranian interests. Nonetheless, as the epicenter of the Shi'a world, Iran does hold influence over at least some fringe Shi'ite militia groups in Iraq, and is certainly capable of inciting some strife inside Iraq if unhappy with the direction of the new government.

Article: Overblown Accusations of Iranian Interference

(Timeline Continued Below)

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